Bumpy Road Ahead: 6 Obstacles Awaiting Raila Odinga In His Quest To Be AUC Chair

• Raila Odinga officially launched his bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, marking a potential final chapter in his political career
• At 79, Raila's age raises concerns about his ability to meet the demanding role, especially against younger candidates like Djibouti's Mahmoud Ali Youssouf
• Raila's candidacy has sparked mixed reactions among Kenyans, with some viewing it as a proud moment, while others criticise his recent political alignments
• The success of Raila's campaign will depend on his ability to navigate African geopolitics, manage past political frictions, and coordinate with the Kenyan government

Didacus Malowa, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over three years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.

Nairobi - Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party leader Raila Amolo Odinga has formally launched his bid to contest for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.

The pompous occasion at state house Nairobi marks what many think could be the final chapter in his illustrious political career.

Raila’s quest for the AUC chair is not just a personal ambition but represents a test of Kenya’s diplomatic clout in the continent.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who also serves as the Cabinet secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, confirmed that Kenya had submitted the necessary documentation for Raila's nomination, signalling the country’s strong backing for his candidacy.

Despite his extensive political experience and Pan-African credentials, securing this high-profile position is filled with challenges.

1. Raila's advanced age

Raila is no stranger to the political arena, but at 79, concerns about his age could become a significant hurdle.

Some may question whether Raila's age might limit his effectiveness in a role as demanding as the AUC chair, which requires high energy levels, continuous travel, and the ability to manage complex negotiations.

While his vast experience and historical knowledge of African politics are invaluable, some might fear his physical ability might not match the demanding requirements.

The chairperson of the commission is the chief executive officer, legal representative of the AU and the AU chairperson’s chief accounting officer.

Djibouti fronted its Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, as a candidate for the next AUC chairperson.

At 58 years old, Youssouf might appeal to some leaders on the continent due to his 'youthful' presence compared to Raila.

However, Raila's age might also act in his favour, given the political clout collected over the years, enabling him to effectively engage the African high-level leadership.

2. Kenyans' opinions on Raila's candidacy

The announcement of Raila’s candidacy has elicited mixed reactions from Kenyans, with some seeing it as a proud moment for the nation and a way to reinforce Kenya's influence on the continent.

Another section has argued that Raila’s past political struggles, including his contested presidential bids and involvement in opposition politics, could pose a major challenge.

Initially, Raila's bid had a strong support base from the Kenyan youth, particularly Gen Zs, who saw it as a crowning moment for his illustrious career.

However, his decision to get into a broad-based government with President William Ruto's administration has not earned him fans.

Social media platforms have been filled with various online polls won by Youssouf as the youth accuse the veteran politician of betraying their course.

The internal divisions within Kenya may weaken the unified support he needs to present a strong case to the rest of Africa.

3. Kenya's view on Africa's divisive geopolitics

Raila's candidacy comes at a time when the continent is grappling with several geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Sahel region, the ongoing instability in the Horn of Africa, and the crisis in the Great Lakes region, among others.

Kenya’s stance on these issues, particularly in terms of neutrality and peacekeeping, could either bolster or hinder his chances.

If Kenya is perceived as biased or too closely aligned with certain factions, it could reduce Raila's appeal as a unifying figure for the continent.

Past declarations by the country on various issues might play a huge role in his bid to take over the AUC leadership.

A hot potato for him to deal with is the question of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), simply known as Western Sahara.

Raila will have to navigate other geopolitical stressors, such as the conflict between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The growing tension between Ethiopia and Somalia would also need some level of strategic ambiguity if not neutrality.

4. The make-up of Raila's campaign team

The group that Raila chooses to lead his campaign will be a major factor in determining his success.

It will have to negotiate the intricate political terrain of the African Union, winning over important member states and allaying the worries of possible adversaries.

Building the required coalitions and fighting off resistance will depend greatly on the calibre of his team's strategists, diplomats, and consultants.

Considering the stakes, a blunder by his campaign staff might rapidly ruin his chances.

5. Past political friction-related issues

Raila's long history on the continent has seen him earn friends and foes in equal measure, and as he embarks on his campaign, they pose a threat to his candidacy.

Due to his extensive background in African politics, he has amassed a number of friends and foes over the years.

Unsolved issues or previous disputes with other African leaders may arise again during his campaign, causing friction that adversaries might take advantage of.

Furthermore, there may be concerns about Raila's impartiality on the continent due to his role in Kenyan politics and his occasionally tense ties with prior African presidents.

6. Co-ordination between government bureaucrats and Raila's team

It will take more than simply diplomatic measures to secure the AUC chair, as Raila's campaign team and the Kenyan government must effectively coordinate resources and logistics.

Since official backing is frequently necessary for campaigns for international posts to be successful, this cooperation is critical.

But possible power struggles between government bureaucrats and the former premier's team might result in misunderstandings or even sabotage, especially if there are conflicting interests.

Who are leading Raila's campaign for AUC?

In June this year, Mudavadi revealed that the state had established a secretariat to spearhead Raila's bid.

As the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Mudavadi affirmed the government's commitment to ensuring Raila's success in securing the prestigious position.

Mudavadi said the team had firmed up preparatory and application documents together with requisite translations of his resume into six languages; Spanish, Portuguese, Arabic, French, English, and Kiswahili.

He expressed confidence in Raila's ability to uphold excellence, aligning with the continent's collective vision for Africa in 2063, as outlined in the AUC development framework.

What else you need to know about Raila's AU bid

• ODM leader Raila Odinga issued a list of African presidents who had openly backed his aspirations for the continent.
• The veteran Kenyan politician officially submitted his credentials ahead of the vote in February next year.
• The AUC chairperson post falls vacant in 2025 following the lapse of Moussa Faki's second and last term.
• The United States of America Ambassador to Kenya, Meg Whitman, endorsed the Azimio la Umoja leader for the AUC seat.

Proofreading by Asher Omondi, current affairs journalist and copy editor at TUKO.co.ke.