Djibouti Candidate Will Win AUC Seat With Landslide, Veteran Diplomatic Affairs Analyst Predicts

• Diplomacy analyst Ahmed Hashi says Raila Odinga will have it rough at the hands of the Djibouti candidate in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson race
• Raila seeks to be the next head of the AU secretariat in the vote slated for February 2025 in Addis Ababa
• Hashi projects Raila flunking the vote owing to several factors, among them his age and the regional realignments within the continent

Kai Eli, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over three years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.

Diplomacy and governance analyst Ahmed Hashi does not foresee a Raila Odinga victory in the oncoming African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship vote.

He says all odds are already against the Kenyan candidate whose bid was officially launched on Tuesday, August 27.

If elected, Raila would head the African Union secretariat stationed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Why Raila might not win AUC chairperson seat

Hashi predicts a landslide win for Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, the Djibouti candidate.

He argues in his analysis that Raila features among the leaders the African youth currently disdain for supposedly mismanaging the continent in their various capacities.

According to him, the restiveness among the continent's youth could inform the ultimate vote in the AU's General Assembly; he implied that African heads of state would seek to appease the young population by voting for a seemingly neutral leader not aligned with the status quo -as Raila is with the Kenyan government, which faced rebellion a few months back- so as to quell the political crises and coups emanating from the young people's rage.

"I think he is going to lose in Addis Ababa. I would be shocked if he gets even a slim majority. The candidate from Djibouti is going to win with a landslide. There is a rebellion of the youth as we have in Kenya, across from Senegal, all the way to Sahel, and to Sudan. There is a popular national democratic revolution, and one of the major issues the young people are fighting over is because of bad governance and a terrible economy. There is a malaise in the African continent about transformation and change," he said.

The analyst, who appeared on a Citizen TV interview, also highlighted the significance of regional self-segregation within the continent based on the colonial masters' demarcations and interests.

According to Hashi, the AU is heavily influenced by France, which has a huge block classed as Francophone countries.

The 28 French-speaking countries on the continent constitute the majority in the AU and thus wield more power than the other blocks.

It is, however, not lost that some Francophone countries were suspended from the AU and no longer partake in its activities, namely Niger, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Gabon and Mali.

How French countries sabotaged Kenyan's candidature

He said those countries have high stakes in the AU secretariat and would, therefore, prefer a candidate who shares in their ideologies, and Raila, who identified eight key areas to found his campaign on, does not fit the bill.

And with the provision that the next chairperson comes from the East Africa region, Mahamoud is the best fit owing to his connections and ability to communicate in French like his countrymen in Djibouti, according to Hashi.

The analyst drew an example from Kenya's loss when it fielded former Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohamed in 2017.

According to Hashi, the French government deployed its subjects in Africa to kill the chances of the Kenyan candidate.

"In West Africa, we have the Francophone, those influenced by the French, we have Lusophone on some parts, and then the English-speaking ones. The AU is divided based on these fundamental tectonic plates. And one of the biggest influencers of the AU is the French. For instance, we knew Amina Mohamed was going to win, and then the French government intervened heavily and we lost. I think the same scenario is going to happen. I think the French, the Sahel areas and major states in Central Africa are going to stand up to the candidature of Raila and say No!" said Hashi.

The question of age would also be Raila's undoing, according to Hashi.

He queried the former Kenyan prime minister's ability to substantively undertake the demanding roles of the AUC chairperson should he be favoured by African heads of state.

Hashi seemed to doubt Raila's ability to identify and relate with the dynamic African youth and their demands.

"This is a wrong move for Raila. In a continent where 80% of the population is under 25, whether or not it serves the interests of the continent for us to have a man who is retiring in his 80s, whether or not he has the energy, vitality and gusto to understand dn do the necessary issues about the youth bubble in the continent," he said.

Inside the AU secretariat

The AUC is composed of the chairperson, deputy Chairperson and commissioners, plus staff.

The Assembly, which comprises heads of state and government, elects the chairperson and their deputy.

The Executive Council elects the commissioners, who are appointed by the Assembly.

The Commission members’ terms are for four years, renewable once.

Raila, who served as the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development for five years between 2018 and 2023, will need support either by consensus or at least a two-thirds majority vote by member states represented by their heads.

Should he win, Raila will observe the code of conduct for the chairmanship, which states that the office holder ought to take a back seat in their country's politics and, at the same time, be neutral in the African socio-political standings.

In addition to Mahmoud, Raila will face former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato and Mauritius's Anil Gayan.

Proofreading by Otukho Jackson, a multimedia journalist and copy editor at TUKO.co.ke